What the 2026 Midterm Election Means for the Housing Market in Montgomery County and Bucks County, PA
The November 3, 2026 midterm election is days away. If you own a home in Montgomery County or Bucks County and you are wondering whether to sell before the election, after it, or whether the outcome changes anything about your home's value — here is what the data actually says.
I am Josh Wernick, a licensed Pennsylvania REALTOR® with Keller Williams Real Estate. I track this market every week. I am going to give you the honest picture, not the optimistic spin.
What Americans Actually Think About Elections and Housing Right Now
A Clever Real Estate survey of 1,000 Americans conducted in September 2026 produced some striking numbers:
74% of Americans say the U.S. is in a housing crisis.
63% do not think the 2026 midterms will positively affect the housing market — regardless of which party wins.
70% say housing costs are a bigger issue in this election than they were in 2024.
85% of likely voters say housing affordability is at least somewhat important when choosing candidates.
58% of Americans say they could not afford to buy a home today — including 47% of current homeowners.
64% do not know where their congressional candidates stand on housing.
77% say tariffs have made building homes more expensive.
The most important number in that list is the first one: 63% do not expect the election to improve the housing market. That is not pessimism — that is realism. Elections change Congress. Congress does not directly set mortgage rates or build houses overnight.
What History Says About Elections and Home Prices
Using S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data going back to 1987:
Home prices rose an average of 4.84% in election years versus 4.44% in non-election years.
In 35 years of data, the typical seasonal drop in home sales is no larger in election years than in non-election years.
Home prices have not historically dropped because of an election.
The takeaway: elections do not crash home values. What they do is create uncertainty, and uncertainty freezes buyers and sellers in place temporarily. The freeze lifts after the results are known — and then the pent-up activity hits the market at once.
The Current Market Reality in Montgomery County and Bucks County
Before getting to election scenarios, here is where this market actually stands right now:
Over 1,000 detached homes are currently for sale in the Montgomery County and Bucks County region — up from 948 the prior week. We have not been over 1,000 units in roughly 8 months.
Mortgage applications remain near historic lows. Rates at 7.34% on the 30-year fixed and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5.3% have sidelined the rate-sensitive buyer pool.
Sellers outnumber active buyers by 63% nationally. This market is not in sellers' favor right now — but that can change quickly.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00% in its most recent decision.
The national debt has passed $40 trillion, which has direct implications for Treasury yields and therefore mortgage rates.
The election does not fix any of those numbers directly. But it does affect what happens to confidence — and confidence is what moves inventory.
Scenario 1: Republicans Retain Congress
In the Clever Real Estate survey:
49% of Americans expect housing affordability to worsen if Republicans keep Congress.
52% expect the economy overall to worsen.
44% expect their personal finances to worsen.
What this likely means for sellers in Montgomery County and Bucks County:
A continuation of the current administration's policy direction is likely to produce a specific type of seller activity — people who have been holding on and finally conclude that conditions are not improving. Distressed sellers, divorce sellers, homeowners under financial pressure who have been watching rates and waiting. That is a motivated, deadline-driven seller pool. It also tends to be a pool of sellers who are not in a position to negotiate — which means buyers with financing can still find value.
If you are a homeowner considering selling and the status quo holds, the window to act before spring inventory peaks is November and December. Listing in January puts you against everyone else who waited.
Scenario 2: Democrats Gain Congress
In the same survey:
37% of Americans expect housing affordability to improve if Democrats gain Congress.
36% expect the economy to improve.
Only 31% expect personal finances to worsen — versus 44% under a Republican Congress.
What this likely means for sellers in Montgomery County and Bucks County:
A shift in Congressional control would likely produce a consumer confidence surge in the short term — not because policy changes overnight, but because sentiment does. Buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for certainty re-enter the market. That kind of snap back in demand benefits sellers with well-positioned listings immediately.
If you are considering selling, a post-election confidence surge means a window of elevated buyer activity in November and December. Homes that are listed, priced, and prepared when that demand hits will have competition for them. Homes that are not listed yet will miss the first wave.
The One Thing Both Scenarios Have in Common
In both cases, the post-election period produces a release of pent-up activity. Buyers and sellers who paused during election uncertainty come back into the market at the same time. That creates a brief window of elevated transaction volume — historically documented across multiple election cycles.
The sellers who benefit from that window are the ones who are already listed and ready to negotiate when it opens. The sellers who miss it are the ones who waited to see the results and then tried to get their house on the market in November.
What Is Actually Going to Move Mortgage Rates
The election will not directly change mortgage rates. What changes mortgage rates is:
The 10-year Treasury yield — currently above 5.3%, the highest since 2004. This is the primary driver of where the 30-year fixed rate sits.
Federal Reserve policy — the Fed just raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The Fed does not cut rates to please voters; it cuts rates when inflation data supports it.
Federal deficit spending — a larger deficit means more Treasury issuance, which pushes yields up and rates with them. Congressional fiscal policy from whoever wins will matter more for rates in 2027 than the election result itself.
Anyone telling you rates will drop immediately after the election is guessing. The bond market will respond to fiscal signals from the new Congress, and that takes time to price in.
The Bipartisan Housing Law That Almost No One Knows About
In July 2026, Congress passed the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act with bipartisan support. 71% of Americans are unaware it exists.
What it does: starting January 7, 2027, investors controlling 350 or more single-family homes are barred from making new purchases. 61% of Americans support restricting large corporate home buyers — but 70% of those supporters do not know the restriction is already law.
This matters for local markets because it reduces one category of competition for individual buyers. Whether it materially affects the Montgomery County and Bucks County market — where institutional buying has been a smaller factor than in Sun Belt markets — is a legitimate question. But it is part of the policy landscape going into 2027.
My Honest Assessment for Sellers in This Market
The election is not going to save a seller who is overpriced. It is not going to hurt a seller who is priced correctly. What the election does is affect the timing and volume of buyer activity in the weeks immediately following November 3.
If you are thinking about selling in the next six months, the math on waiting is not in your favor. Spring 2027 will bring more inventory, more competition, and sellers who also waited all winter. The post-election window in November and December is a real opportunity — smaller than spring, but with less competition.
If you want a direct assessment of what your home is worth right now and what the realistic timeline and net proceeds look like in this market, call or text me at 267-934-5674 or email joshwernick@kw.com. I will give you real numbers, not optimistic projections.
What the 2026 Election Means for the Housing Market in Montgomery County and Bucks County PA - Frequently Asked Questions
Will the 2026 midterm election affect home prices in Montgomery County and Bucks County PA?
Historical data shows home prices do not typically drop in election years. Since 1987, prices averaged 4.84% growth in election years versus 4.44% in non-election years. What the election affects is confidence — and confidence moves buyer and seller activity, which affects inventory and ultimately price direction.
Should I wait until after the election to sell my house?
Waiting for the election to pass is a common instinct that often backfires. Post-election periods historically see a rebound in buyer and seller activity as pent-up demand releases simultaneously. Sellers who are listed and ready when that wave hits benefit from it. Sellers who wait to list until after the results miss the first wave of returning buyers.
What happens to mortgage rates after the election?
Rates are driven by Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy, not directly by election outcomes. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently above 5.3% — the highest since 2004. Rate relief depends on fiscal policy direction from the new Congress and inflation data, not the election result itself.
Is now a good time to sell my house in Montgomery County or Bucks County?
It depends on your situation. Sellers who need to move due to divorce, relocation, estate settlement, or financial pressure cannot afford to time the market. The local market has over 1,000 homes available right now, which means pricing strategy and preparation matter more than political timing. Call 267-934-5674 for a direct assessment of your property.
Related Pages:
Sell My Home Fast PA
Sell My House Fast in Montgomery County PA
Sell My House Fast in Bucks County PA
Selling a House During Divorce in Pennsylvania
Selling During Divorce — Montgomery County PA
Selling During Divorce — Bucks County PA
Facing Foreclosure in Montgomery County PA
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The Housing Affordability Crisis Explained
Pennsylvania Mortgage Contingency
Sources: Clever Real Estate Survey of 1,000 Americans, September 2026; S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index historical data via PropStream; United States Real Estate Investor, October 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 2026; Mortgage Bankers Association, October 2026.
